Good evening Gentlemen. It’s not easy to write update on the covid-19 situation when everything is changing so fast. But I will try to give our overview of the situation in general and then what we have in Russia in particular.
Situation in the world
What we see from various web sites and newspapers (like here or here) is that every country has its own way. Asia region is doing good – Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and other countries have low rate of news cases and fatal rate. Most have good medicine, many imposed self-isolation or quarantine and that helped
Europe was under close look in last weeks as situation in Italy and Spain was awful. There are many articles and reports available on the internet describing and explaining why these could happen, what was made wrong, and why Germany and many other European countries showing opposite results. Anyway, recent numbers from Europe offer hope that peak is over, and situation will be better every day. If you want to learn more on that please read NYTimes (about Germany) and The Guardian (overview of Europe) articles.
Mexico, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and many other countries all are doing relatively good. These countries imposed different measures, some used soft quarantine, other total ban for international travel or strict self-isolation, but anyway situation in these counties is under control from what we see. Limitations on travelling will exist in April and may be May, but we think after they will be released.
What scares us most today is the situation in the USA. No matter how it became possible, but there are more than 337+ thousand people infected there and next weeks will be extremely difficult for the states. We wish good luck to our American friends and partners, customers and simply all people. Be strong and stay healthy, you will be able to pass this storm.
What is going on in Russia?
On the 18th of March Russian government closed borders and placed travel ban on foreigners coming to Russia, it is valid till 30th of April. During next 10 days step by step schools, shopping malls, sport events, concerts, mass gathering, and other public activities were limited, postponed, or cancelled.
Finally, on the 28th of March our president announced, that next 8 days will be non-working, he did not say quarantine, but announced them as extra vacations. And although he asked to stay at home except urgent need, like go to food store, pharmacy, walk with dog, etc., a lot of people were still walking in the parks and just along the streets. Authorities quickly realized that soft social isolation does not work in Russia, so on the 2nd of April government announced that all April will be non-working and self-isolation is not a wish, but a must, at least till 12-14th of April, then they will decide on the situation. Anyway until 30th of April no sport event, concerts, public events, schools are closed, companies are on vacations except police, healthcare, food stores, etc.
Our point of view giving extra vacations was a mistake from the very beginning, strict self-isolation should be placed. Good that government was quick in correcting its mistakes. As of today there are approx. 6400 confirmed cases in Russia (+500 every day during last 7 days, drastic rise from 25-50 cases one week ago when no limitations were placed), 95% came from Europe. We think finally imposed restrictions will help stop spread of infection around the country. According to Russian government peak of new cases will be in April, everything will get back to normal life in May. That seems to be realistic scenario.
How current situation will influence our travel plans?
We think end of April will be the decision-making moment for the first half of summer. Although we will see many sad news from the USA in the coming weeks, in other countries and parts of the world limitations or quarantine regimes most probably will be removed. Europe is recovering, Australia, India and other countries are doing relatively good fighting covid-19, so there is no need to keep people at home. We hope situation in Russia will improve now as well, when people are firmly asked to stay at home.
There are many talks nowadays how quick vaccine can be created? How quick the world will recover? When it will be safe to travel?
After reading tons of information we think the following scenario most probably will apply:
- Creating and producing vaccine is long process and it will not appear in April/May, but that doesn’t mean its all over
- Many countries already do mass testing, others will follow soon. Cheap, fast and widely available, tests will make possible to quickly identify infected people and put them under home quarantine or in hospitals if needed, meanwhile others can travel, work, meet with friends. If 80% of humanity has immunity against covid-19 and only 20% can get it, there is no need to place at home all 100% of population
- There are different existing drugs that are effective against covid-19 (please read NYTimes article on this). Most are under tests right now and no single treatment protocol is created yet, but that is the questions of nearest weeks/months. Creating vaccine is long, testing existing drugs is much faster. Tests are in progress, by the end of April we will have news on this
- With the summer approaching epidemy can go down naturally, like it always happened in the past
Our recommendations remain the same since last e-mail.
А. If you feel uncomfortable because of the global situation in the world or your tour starts in May, it can make sense to postpone/reschedule it into late summer (July-August-September) or even to next year. For those who would postpone his tour we would give 7% discount/cashback plus compensate your visa counsel fee if you already paid for it. Or you can wait till end of April and decide then
B. If your tour starts in June-July-August we suggest waiting and see how situation will develop during April. We still have time and because everything happens so fast in the end of April situation can be different from what is now, in both positive and negative aspects
C. If you want to cancel the tour and get refund, we will arrange this in 3-4 months, but please think first about postponing the tour. Because for us refund is most negative scenario. During the winter we prepaid hotels and other counterparties and invested money into new bikes, accessories, spare parts, team, etc. If you request refund it means we must sell part of the fleet/stock, and this can take some time. So, if you can reschedule your trip instead of requesting refund, we would be grateful for you
That is it for today, hope you will find information above useful. And we cross fingers the power of positive thinking will make our forecasts come true. Our guides look forward to the first tours and meeting you. Till that moment, please stay healthy…
All the best to you and your families.
Best regards,
Alexander Nikonov