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What we know about covid-19 after 5 months of living with it and what is our forecast for the future?

Its five months as we live with the covid-19 and since February we learned a lot about it. There were articles and research materials published, many tests and trials done by pharma companies. Recently we listened to one Russian doctor who said several interesting insights that we want to share with you.

Here is the summary:

1) Coronaviruses always existed, it’s not something that appeared just now. We know them from 60th when we were able to identify them. Since 2000th years there were at least 3 outbreaks of coronaviruses, like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. SARS-CoV-2 (aka covid-19) is fourth in last 20 years

2) In 60, 70, 80, 90th there were years when flu was severe (like Hong Kong flu pandemic) or outbreaks of pneumonia happened. Because we had no proper tests we didn’t know what is that and classified everything as a flu, nobody implemented lockdowns or panicked. There was no internet, no social media, that raised so much scary pictures and “breaking news” today

3) Covid-19, as we know today from recent research, is another type of coronavirus, that has relatively high death rate among 65 years plus age group (5-6%), but it didn’t touch children and people of middle age, in most cases these groups have no symptoms or light form of symptoms. In general among all population death rate is less than 1%

4) Covid -19 is not as serious as many other deceases and its strange that we pay so much attention to it. Every year in the world

a. 1 mln. people die of suicide

b. 1,8 mln. die of tuberculosis

c. 3,5 mln of AIDs

d. 8 mln of cancel

e. 17-20 mln of infarcts and insults

Covid-19 killed ~0,5 mln in half a year, equals to the total suicide numbers for the same period. Why don’t we close borders and stop economy because of 1 mln suicides every year? Why don’t we want to deal with this problem, when people kill themselves because of nervous, social stress and other problems?

Not to mentions criminals death, military fights. There is no vaccine against AIDs, why don’t we pay attention to this decease, that kills, 3,5 times more people that covid-19? Or cancel, that takes 8 times more lives every year? Our behavior now is illogical, irrational. We pay too much attention to one decease and strangely forget about other deceases, that are more serious and we don’t have vaccine against them yet as well.

5) Covid-19

a. Like a flu can’t be stopped by closing borders and lockdowns, it will appear on all continents sooner or later

b. There is no immunity against covid-19, like we don’t have it against flu. Recent research shows that if you had covid-19, antibodies that appear in you (reaction of our immunity system that fight the virus) exist in your body for 3-4 months and then disappear, so you catch covid-19 again in the future. Like with a flu. After measles or rubella you have antibodies for all your life, after flu/covid just 4-6 months

c. Vaccine against covid-19 will be created by autumn, but virus will slightly mutate every 1-2 years and vaccine every year will be slightly different. Like with a flu, every year slightly different stamp of flu and slightly different vaccine. Its not like you make one vaccine against flu and can’t get it during all your life. You make it every year, if you want. Many people don’t like vaccine and that is fine as well

d. Best protection against covid, like with a flu, is healthy and active way of life, no smoking, regular sport, good food and positive thinking

Russian government thinks that Covid-19 was something unknown and possibly dangerous in winter, so in the end of March government placed lockdown for 2 months to understand what we deal with, to win some time to prepare extra beds, train doctors how to deal with it, to produce enough protection gear. Restrictions were places mostly in the hospitality industry (restaurants, hotels, shopping malls), construction and mass events segments. Moscow Metro worked all the time and all big infrastructure/oil companies worked as well.

In the end of May situation was more predictable and understandable, so since June restrictions in Russia were step by step eased. What we know for now, is that it’s necessary to take care of older people, they are in the risk group. But we don’t need to limit all other age groups, because lockdowns cause even more problems and deaths.

More suicides, more family/home aggression, more people die of infarcts and insults because they can’t get proper help, all are focused on covid-19, that is 10 times less dangerous that these diseases.

3 000 people die in Russia every day because of different deceases, smoking, alco, in car accidents, criminals, etc. 100 of them die from covid-19. We should not become crazy because of coronavirus casualties, other victims/cases probably need more attention.

Vaccine will not save us, doesn’t matter when it will appear. Same as with the flu, the more people will get it, the sooner collective immunity will appear and same time virus will become weaker.

And lets not forget that virus is far less dangerous as some media shows it. Lets repeat numbers: 1 mln people do suicide every year (covid-19 will take approx. same numbers of lives), 1,8 mln. die of tuberculosis, 3,5 mln of AIDs, 8 mln of cancel, 17-20 mln of infarcts and insults. Let’s focus on real problems first.

That’s what we think in Russia in general, that’s what government position is about. Well, from what we see/hear. For sure we can’t tell on behalf of Russian authorities.

p.s.: disclosure - this is our judgment based on various material we read, hear. We understand that we can be wrong and that we dont know full picture. But rational, logical and structural thinking leads us to such conclusions

p.s.s.: please take care and stay healthy, we look forward to see you in Russia in the fall 2020 or in 2021 season